Do you know that the temperature has already increased by more than 1 °C above pre-industrial levels, disrupting the comfort zones for sleeping and reproduction? Erratic rainfall is adding more discomfort for agricultural livelihoods in many developing countries. The escalating frequency of drought, extreme heat, and wildfires is fundamentally disrupting global agricultural systems, creating a complex web of challenges that threaten food security well into 2027.
These climate extremes simultaneously reduce crop yields, deplete supply reserves, and destabilise markets, with the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) Food Security Index revealing that the impacts are most severe where financial and institutional buffers are weakest.
As major producing regions face synchronous shocks, the capacity of international trade to compensate for localised shortages diminishes, raising the spectre of commodity-price volatility and food inflation.
This report analyses core agricultural pressures, social and economic risks, future climatic extremities, regional forecasts, and adaptation strategies, concluding with an assessment of the urgent need for coordinated action to build resilience.
Core Agricultural Pressures
Extreme heat and drought slash yields, deplete water reserves, and strain soils. Synchronised crop failures across regions erode supply buffers, spiking commodity markets and weakening trade's crisis-response capacity.
Lower Yields
Extreme heat directly diminishes agricultural productivity, with crop yields declining once temperatures surpass critical thresholds. A joint FAO-WMO report in April 2026 estimates that maize yields have already dropped by 7.5% per 1°C of warming, wheat by 6%, and soybean by 6.8%.
In India, climate projections indicate rice and wheat production could fall by 6-10% in the near term, with more severe long-term losses under high-emissions scenarios. The 2026 summer season demonstrated these impacts globally, with European forecasts showing reductions in winter crop yields of 1-4% and corn/sunflower estimates cut by 6-7%.
In France specifically, extreme weather led to a forecast reduction of 4.1 million tonnes of grain, costing an estimated €891 million. Cambodian farmers face projections of 10-15% yield losses by 2040 due to extreme heat.
Resource Strain
Agricultural resource strain manifests through water scarcity, land-use changes, and labour productivity losses. Heat stress has reduced global agricultural productivity by approximately 21% since 1961, erasing nearly seven years of gains.
Between 1992 and 2020, about 88 million additional hectares were brought under cultivation to compensate for production losses caused by heat and drought, generating an estimated 21.8 billion tonnes of CO₂ emissions—creating a damaging feedback loop.
Water restrictions in the Netherlands forced farmers to halt irrigation from streams and drainage canals, with local farmers projecting potato harvests roughly one-third below average.
In India, agricultural workers lost an average of 648 working hours (54 full days) to heat stress in 2024, raising concerns about the viability of outdoor labour as wet-bulb temperatures approach safe limits.
Market Shocks
Simultaneous production shocks across multiple breadbasket regions are eroding supply buffers and limiting trade's ability to compensate for shortages. The superposition of geopolitical conflict and extreme weather has created cascading effects. The Strait of Hormuz disruption, combined with a potential "super El Niño," is tightening global fertiliser supply—one-third of the world's urea passes through the strait, with prices rising up to 40%.
JPMorgan identifies five converging pressures—War, Weather, Warehousing, Water, and Waste—as driving a systemic food crisis. The 2026 El Niño event could push an additional 49 million people into acute food insecurity, bringing the global total to 274 million. These shocks are already reflected in food prices, with the FAO Food Price Index rising 1.6% in April 2026.
Wildfires and global food security
Wildfires are no longer isolated seasonal events confined to remote forests; escalating global temperatures, prolonged droughts, and erratic weather patterns have transformed them into systemic threats to global food security. From incinerating cropland to disrupting supply chains and altering regional climates, wildfires strike every stage of the global food system.
Direct Destructiveness: Crop Losses and Livestock Mortality
The immediate impact of wildfires is the direct scorching of standing crops, pastures, and agricultural infrastructure.
Arable Land Incineration
Mega-fires across North America, Southern Europe, and Australia routinely wipe out thousands of hectares of grain, orchards, and vineyards right before harvest.
Livestock Losses
Fires destroy critical forage, burn fencing, and kill livestock outright, forcing emergency culls and crippling animal protein production.
Infrastructure Destruction
Irrigation systems, processing facilities, farm machinery, and storage silos are frequently consumed, leaving surviving farms unable to store or transport harvested produce.
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) highlights that disaster-driven losses in agriculture disproportionately hit rural livelihoods, compounding localised food deficits.
Environmental Degradation: Soil Health and Pollination Crisis
Beyond immediate physical destruction, wildfires induce long-term ecological damage that depresses agricultural yields for years following an event.
Severe Soil Hydrophobicity
High-intensity fires burn organic matter and heat soil top layers, creating a water-repellent (hydrophobic) crust. This drastically reduces water infiltration, increases surface runoff, accelerates erosion, and strips topsoil of vital microbial life.
Toxic Ash and Heavy Metals
Runoff carrying toxic ash pollutes nearby water reservoirs used for irrigation, contaminating crops with heavy metals and chemical residue.
Pollinator Decline
Wildfire smoke and habitat destruction devastate populations of bees, butterflies, and wild pollinators. According to research synthesised by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), loss of pollinator services directly imperils nutrient-dense fruit, vegetable, and seed production.
Smoke Deposition and Crop Yield Reduction
The agricultural impact of wildfires extends hundreds—sometimes thousands—of kilometres beyond the burn zone through dense smoke plumes.
Solar Dimming and Reduced Photosynthesis
Dense smoke blocks photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), suppressing crop growth rates and delaying crop maturation across expansive farming belts.
Ozone and Air Pollution Damage
Wildfire smoke contains volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) that react in sunlight to form ground-level ozone (O3). Ground-level ozone causes severe foliar damage, reduces stomatal conductance, and drastically cuts grain yields in major staple crops like wheat, soybeans, and maize.
Smoke Taint in Perennials
Persistent smoke absorption creates severe chemical off-flavours (smoke taint) in perennial crops like grapes, tree nuts, and stone fruits, rendering entire harvests unmarketable.
Supply Chain Logistics and Price Volatility
Wildfires disrupt transport networks and destabilise food markets, triggering food inflation and access inequality.
- Logistics Bottlenecks: Fires regularly close major highways, rail corridors, and rural access roads, preventing perishable food from reaching urban distribution hubs and markets.
- Price Spikes and Food Insecurity: When major agricultural zones suffer concurrent wildfire losses, supply shortfalls drive up global food commodity prices. As noted in assessments by the World Food Programme (WFP), low-income populations spend a higher percentage of their household income on food, making them exceptionally vulnerable to wildfire-induced price spikes.
Social and Economic Risks
Food inflation accelerates, hitting 5% by 2027. Outdoor workers face unsafe heat exposure, losing workdays and incomes. Low-income nations, contributing minimal emissions, suffer disproportionate hunger and livelihood collapse.
Price Inflation
JPMorgan projects global food inflation will accelerate from 2.8% in the first half of 2026 to 5% by the first half of 2027. Goldman Sachs forecasts cumulative food price increases of 15.8% by 2028.
The inflationary pressure increases from multiple sources: elevated fertiliser costs due to disrupted supply chains, rising energy prices affecting agricultural machinery and shipping, and commodity market volatility triggered by production shortfalls.
The lag effect of El Niño means agricultural impacts typically materialise 6-12 months after ocean temperature peaks, which indicates that even if immediate weather conditions stabilise, price pressures will persist through 2027. This prolonged inflation cycle will affect every level of the food system, from farm inputs to retail prices.
Vulnerable Workforces
Agricultural workers constitute one of the most climate-vulnerable workforces globally. The FAO-WMO report highlights that prolonged exposure to extreme heat is becoming a serious occupational hazard, with some regions potentially facing conditions where outdoor agricultural work becomes physically unsafe.
In India, rice cultivation depends heavily on manual labour, and workers in the Ganga and Indus basins could experience wet-bulb temperatures exceeding safe work limits (35o C) under high-emission scenarios. The economic impacts extend beyond health—lost working days translate directly into reduced incomes for already marginalised populations.
In Cambodia, where agriculture employs 37% of the workforce and much of it is rain-fed, heat and drought threaten both household incomes and food access.
Heat stress and death of agricultural labour
According to the International Labour Organization (ILO), over 1.2 million deaths worldwide each year are attributable to occupational heat exposure. The densely populated agricultural regions of the Ganges and Indus River Basins (spanning India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh) are the world's most vulnerable zones for deadly heat stress.
The ILO estimates that by 2030, excessive heat will reduce total working hours in South Asia by roughly 5%, equivalent to losing over 40 million full-time jobs, concentrated heavily in agricultural labour.
Unequal Impact
The IIED Food Security Index reveals striking inequalities in climate vulnerability. India's baseline food security score of 5.31 is significantly below the global average of 6.74 and is projected to decline to 4.52 under 2°C warming.
While a $1,000 increase in per capita GDP correlates with only a 0.2-point improvement in food security, the gains are weakest in sustainability and resilience—precisely where they are most needed.
Low-income countries, which contribute roughly 1% of global emissions, face a 22% rise in food insecurity under warming scenarios compared to a 3% increase in high-income nations.
Currently, 4.56 billion people (59% of humanity) live in countries scoring below the global average. The number of countries facing critical food insecurity could nearly triple to 24 under 2°C warming.
Future Extremities
Drought frequency and heat intensity will double at 2°C warming. Crop yields drop 6% per 1°C rise. By 2050, wheat and rice losses could exceed 40% in South Asia, with wet-bulb temperatures threatening outdoor labour viability.
Drought
Drought frequency and severity are projected to increase across multiple agricultural regions. The 2026 "super El Niño" with 69% probability is expected to bring prolonged dry conditions to Australia, Southeast Asia, and parts of the Americas.
In Cambodia, rain-fed agricultural systems face intensifying dry spells, with cover cropping emerging as a practical adaptation to improve water retention and soil health.
European drought conditions in summer 2026 forced water restrictions, reducing potato yields by one-third and severely impacting French corn production to levels not seen since 1980.
Morocco provides a sobering example: six years of consecutive drought followed by record heatwaves reduced cereal yields by over 40% and decimated olive and citrus harvests.
Temperature
The trajectory of global temperature rise presents existential challenges for agriculture. A 2.5-4.9°C temperature increase could reduce wheat yields by 41-52% and rice yields by 32-40% in India. The intensity of extreme heat events could roughly double at 2°C warming and quadruple at 3°C compared to 1.5°C.
Every one-degree rise in average global temperatures cuts yields of the world's four major crops (maize, rice, soybean, and wheat) by approximately 6%. The FAO-WMO report underscores that there is little evidence that grain production has become more resilient to extreme heat over the past five decades, and in countries like Brazil, crops have become even more sensitive. Rising CO₂ levels also reduce the protein, iron, and zinc content of rice grains, exacerbating "hidden hunger".
Influence on Agriculture
Climate change is reshaping agricultural systems in fundamental ways: reducing the window for critical growth phases like wheat grain-filling; altering planting and harvesting schedules; increasing pest and disease pressures; and forcing expansion of cultivation onto marginal lands.
The 2026 summer demonstrates these compounding effects: in Uttar Pradesh, sugarcane farmers reported yield drops of up to 30% and reduced sugar content from temperature spikes. In France, vineyard smoke taint from wildfires threatens wine quality, while reduced forage availability impacts dairy production.
Marine heatwaves threaten fisheries and aquaculture, with 91% of world oceans experiencing at least one marine heatwave in 2024. These changes represent not just seasonal variability but structural shifts in agricultural suitability that will require fundamental adaptation.
Regional Food Security Forecasts
Asia faces critical rice/wheat losses and monsoon disruptions, threatening 1.4 billion. Europe loses €2 billion in 2026 grains alone, with corn at 1980s lows, while drought decimates Morocco's olives and citrus.
Asia
Asia faces the most severe food security challenges due to high population density, reliance on rain-fed agriculture, and limited institutional buffers. India, with 1.4 billion people and over 65% of its farmland rain-fed, stands at the epicentre of risk. The country's 2024-25 wheat procurement came in at 26.6 million tonnes, well below the 34.15 million-tonne target, partly due to heat stress during the grain-filling phase.
South and eastern India face projected rice yield reductions of 8-12% due to erratic rainfall, salinity intrusion, and submergence risks. JPMorgan identifies South and Southeast Asia among regions facing the highest food inflation risks.
The 2026 El Niño could further disrupt monsoon patterns, affecting the kharif and rabi crop cycles on which hundreds of millions depend. Southeast Asian nations like Cambodia are implementing local adaptation measures, but scale remains a challenge.
Europe
Europe, while generally more resilient, is experiencing significant climate impacts. The summer of 2026 brought record temperatures, drought, and wildfires, with COCERAL estimating 9 million tonnes of grain losses worth approximately €2 billion.
France accounted for nearly half of these losses (4.1 million tonnes, €891 million), with corn production potentially falling 35% to levels not seen since 1980. The Netherlands' potato sector faces a third lower harvest due to irrigation restrictions.
Beyond production losses, European security is indirectly threatened: the Council on Strategic Risks warns that multiple breadbasket failures could create openings for geopolitical manipulation, fuel instability in partner nations, and elevate food production as a strategic lever. The EU and NATO are urged to treat food-system resilience as a core security imperative.
Adaptation Strategies for Smallholder Farmers
Zero tillage, direct-seeded rice, cover cropping, and drought-tolerant varieties conserve water and boost yields. Micro-irrigation, agroforestry, and mobile weather advisories build resilience affordably, with farmer-to-farmer networks accelerating local adoption. Smallholder farmers, who constitute the majority of agricultural producers in vulnerable regions, require practical, affordable adaptation strategies:
Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) Practices
There are a good number of climate-smart practices available, but they need to be adopted
- Zero tillage and raised-bed planting reduce soil disturbance, conserve moisture, and improve drainage in flood-prone areas
- Direct-seeded rice saves water and labour compared to traditional transplanting methods
- Laser land levelling improves water distribution and reduces irrigation time
- Cover cropping with legumes and grasses improves soil health, water retention, and yields—farmers in Cambodia report 20% yield increases at lower cost than chemical fertilisers
- Drought- and submergence-tolerant crop varieties maintain yields under stress conditions
Water and Resource Management
Water and resource management are vital issues for adaptations
- Micro-irrigation (drip/sprinkler systems) and rainwater harvesting improve water efficiency
- Agroforestry integrates trees with crops to improve soil fertility, reduce erosion, and diversify income
- Residue management/mulching conserves soil moisture
Resiliency and Adaptive Solutions for Wildfire
Building resilience against wildfire threats requires systemic agricultural adaptation and integrated land management:
Firebreaks and Agroforestry
Integrating fire-resistant tree species, managed agroforestry buffers, and dynamic rotational grazing creates natural firebreaks around vulnerable cropland.
Early Warning Systems
Utilising satellite remote sensing (e.g., MODIS, VIIRS) and real-time climate monitoring allows farmers to optimise harvest schedules before severe fire conditions.
Regenerative Soil Management
Adopting cover cropping and reduced tillage accelerates post-fire soil recovery by reintroducing organic carbon and restoring soil water retention capacity.
Information and Capacity Building
Several steps need to be considered as stated below:
- ICT-based weather advisories deliver timely forecasts via mobile phones
- Farmer-to-farmer knowledge sharing through demonstration plots and cooperatives
- Training manuals developed in local languages to improve access to CSA techniques
- Value chain development links farmers to markets for climate-resilient products
- Research in South Asia shows these practices are most effective when prioritised with farmers and assessed for profitability and sustainability
Conclusion
Climate-driven shocks to agriculture- drought, heat, and wildfires- are not future scenarios but present realities that disrupt yields, strain resources, and inflate food prices. The global food system faces a compounding crisis: synchronised production failures across major breadbaskets, geopolitical trade disruptions, and structural vulnerabilities in low-income countries.
By 2027, food inflation could reach 5% globally, pushing millions more into food insecurity. While adaptation strategies exist—from climate-smart agriculture to early-warning systems—they require investment and political will that remain insufficient.
The IIED's finding that economic growth alone cannot build resilience underscores the need for systematic, coordinated action. Without urgent emissions reductions and investment in adaptive capacity, the food system's fragility will worsen, with cascading humanitarian and security consequences.